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Images of Southern Africa - Falling life expectancy

Falling life expectancy

This is one of the saddest of images, but it cannot be ignored. The grave shown here is of a young man, Lukhanyo Aplomb, who died at the age of 21. His grave has been decorated with flowers and a colourful display of pom-poms. The pom-poms are four of the colours found in the flag of South Africa and may have been chosen for this purpose.

UNAIDS estimates that in South Africa 20.1% of people aged between 15 and 49 are currently living with HIV/AIDS. This represents around 4 million people. There are an estimated 1600 new cases every day, and by 2005 the country will probably have 1 million children under the age of 15 whose mothers have died of AIDS. Currently, around a quarter of a million South Africans die of AIDS each year, and this figure is expected rise to 1 million by 2008. As HIV/AIDS is not a notifiable disease in South Africa a wide range of reasons can and do appear on death certificates - so the real figure may be much higher.

Currently the incidence of HIV in South Africa is growing as fast as in some other countries. Women between the ages of 20 and 30 appear to be most at risk, but it is especially affecting the young, black and economically disadvantaged sections of the population. HIV/AIDS has considerable impact on life expectancy in South Africa - in 1998 it was estimated to have risen to 60 years, but by 2008 will have reduced to 40.

A combination of political and economic factors has resulted in the high rate of growth of the HIV pandemic in South Africa. Only in November 2003 did the South African government agreed to allow hospitals to provide anti-retroviral drugs. Also the major producers of patented drugs, such as Glaxo Smith-Kline, have insisted on keeping their prices well above the means of most South Africans. The opening up of the market to imports of generic drugs from Brazil and allowing hospitals to supply such drugs free should help reduce the incidence of early death. 


Ideas for further exploration:


Use the information on Botswana, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe on the Earthtrends website to answer the following questions:

  • In which country did life expectancy most closely reflect world levels in 1975?
  • Which country achieved the most impressive improvement in life expectancy post-1975?
  • All five countries have experienced marked changes in life expectancy in recent years. Describe these changes in terms of their magnitude and duration.
  • Relate these changes to the data available on HIV/AIDS provided on the Country Profile pages.
  • Which country achieved the most impressive improvement in life expectancy up to 1995?
  • Which country’s life expectancy has varied least over the period 1950 to 2005?
  • Which country has experienced the most dramatic fall in life expectancies in the period since 1990?
  • List some of the ways in which a family’s quality of life might be affected by deaths from AIDS.


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